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Friday, September 18, 2009

My Emmy Predictions

So Sunday is the Emmys. That means it’s time for me to make my predictions on the winners in the major categories.

Usually when I do this, I’ve spent a week reading insiders’ columns to determine who has the best shot based on the episode they submitted and the analysis of industry experts.

But this year because of time constraints—and because there are so few categories I actually care about—I am just going to go with gut instinct. We’ll see if that makes my predictions any better.

As you may recall, I always choose who I think is going to win; the Wild Card, i.e. the person who has the best chance of upsetting my pick; and who I want to win in each major category.

So without further ado, here are my picks…

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Jim Parsons (Sheldon, “The Big Bang Theory)
Jemaine Clement (Jemaine, “Flight of the Concords”)
Tony Shalhoub (“Monk”)
Steve Carell (Michael, “The Office”)
Alec Baldwin (Jack, “30 Rock”)
Charlie Sheen (Charlie, “Two and a Half Men”)

Will Win: Shalhoub. I just feel like the Academy will go with an old standby this year—especially since this will be one of their last chances to honor him.
Wild Card: Baldwin, because he is a Wild Card.
Want to Win: Parsons, of course. He is absolutely the most deserving.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Bryan Cranston (Walter, “Breaking Bad”)
Michael C. Hall (“Dexter”)
Hugh Laurie, (“House”)
Gabriel Byrne (Paul, “In Treatment”)
Jon Hamm (Don, “Mad Men”)
Simon Baker (Patrick, “The Mentalist”)

Will Win: Laurie. I just believe this is finally his year.
Wild Card: Cranston. Last year’s winner will be hard to overlook.
Want to Win: Baker. I just think that would be a real surprise. But I would be okay with Laurie or Cranston winning as well.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Christine, “The New Adventures of Old Christine”)
Christina Applegate (Samantha, “Samantha Who?”)
Sarah Silverman (“The Sarah Silverman Program”)
Tina Fey (Liz, “30 Rock”)
Toni Collette (Tara, “United States of Tara”)
Mary-Louise Parker (Nancy, “Weeds”)

Will Win: Fey. Honestly, can anyone stop her?
Wild Card: Collette. She is playing a woman with a split personality after all.
Want to Win: Applegate. I love it when stars of wrongly cancelled shows get honored.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama
Sally Field (Nora, “Brothers & Sisters”)
Kyra Sedgwick (Brenda, “The Closer”)
Glenn Close (Patty, “Damages”)
Mariska Hargitay (Olivia, “Law & Order: SVU”)
Elisabeth Moss (Peggy, “Mad Men”)
Holly Hunter (Grace, “Saving Grace”)

Will Win: Close, because she’s Glenn Close.
Wild Card: Moss, because “Mad Men” is so beloved by people in the industry.
Want to Win: Sedgwick, because she deserves it.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Kevin Dillon (Johnny, “Entourage”)
Neil Patrick Harris (Barney, “How I Met Your Mother”)
Rainn Wilson (Dwight, “The Office”)
Tracy Morgan (Tracy, “30 Rock”)
Jack McBrayer (Kenneth, “30 Rock”)
Jon Cryer (Alan, “Two and a Half Men”)

Will Win: NPH. This has got to be his year, right?
Wild Card: McBrayer, since everyone loves “30 Rock”
Want to Win: Do you even have to ask? NPH all the way!

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
William Shatner, (Denny, “Boston Legal”)
Christian Clemenson (Jerry, “Boston Legal”)
Aaron Paul (Jesse, “Breaking Bad”)
William Hurt (Daniel, “Damages”)
Michael Emerson (Ben, “Lost”)
John Slattery (Roger, “Mad Men”)

Will Win: Hurt, because he’s William Hurt.
Wild Card: Slattery, because of “Mad Men.”
Want to Win: As much as I would love to see “BL” get some last love with a Shatner win, Emerson totally deserves it.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Kristin Chenoweth (Olive, “Pushing Daisies”)
Amy Poehler (“Saturday Night Live”)
Kristin Wiig (“Saturday Night Live”)
Jane Krakowski (Jenna, “30 Rock”)
Vanessa Williams (Wilhelmina, “Ugly Betty”)
Elizabeth Perkins (Celia, “Weeds”)

Will Win: Poehler since “SNL” is on an Emmy hot streak.
Wild Card: Wiig, since “SNL” is on an Emmy hot streak.
Want to Win: I’m okay with Poehler, but I’m also a fan of Chenoweth. Plus there’s that whole cancelled show thing.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Rose Byrne (Ellen, “Damages”)
Sandra Oh (Christina, “Grey’s Anatomy”)
Chandra Wilson (Miranda, “Grey’s Anatomy”)
Dianne Wiest (Gina, “In Treatment”)
Hope Davis (Mia, “In Treatment”)
Cherry Jones (President Taylor, “24”)

Will Win: Wiest, because the Academy can’t resist her.
Wild Card: Davis, because “Treatment” is just Emmy bait.
Want to Win: Jones, of course.

Outstanding Host For a Reality or Reality-Competition Program
Phil Keoghan (“The Amazing Race”)
Ryan Seacrest (“American Idol”)
Tom Bergeron (“Dancing With the Stars”)
Heidi Klum (“Project Runway”)
Jeff Probst (“Survivor”)
Padma Lakshmi and Tom Colicchio (“Top Chef”)

Will Win: Keoghan, because the Academy loves “Race”
Wild Card: Probst, since he won last year
Want to Win: Lakshmi and Colicchio. I love Seacrest and would be fine if he won. But I would really love to see Bravo have something to rub in the Weinsteins’ faces for that whole “Runway” debacle. If Klum wins, you will be able to hear me screaming.

Outstanding Comedy Series
“Family Guy”
“Flight of the Conchords”
“How I Met Your Mother”
“The Office”
“30 Rock”

Will Win: “30 Rock.” It is the critics’ darling, after all.
Wild Card: “How I Met Your Mother.” You can’t count out the NPH factor.
Want to Win: “Family Guy.” I think this would be a real slap in the face to some people and you know Seth MacFarlane will give a great speech.

Outstanding Drama Series
“Big Love”
“Breaking Bad”
“Mad Men”

Will Win: “Mad Men”
Wild Card: All of them
Want to Win: I honestly don’t care. I was going to go with “Lost,” but that just means that we’ll have to hear Team Darlton brag about it and badmouth all of the other shows.

Outstanding Reality-Competition Program
“The Amazing Race”
“American Idol”
“Dancing With the Stars”
“Project Runway”
“Top Chef”

Will Win: “Race.” It’s won every time so why stop now.
Wild Card: “Idol.” You have to consider the Adam Lambert factor.
Want to Win: “Top Chef.” It didn’t have a very strong year, but it would still be great for Bravo. I don’t want “Idol” to win because I don’t think it should be rewarded for its blatant attempt to manipulate the results. And if “Runway” wins for that dreadful season, well, I’ll be screaming at that too.

So what do you think? Who do you think will take home the big prizes Sunday night? Be sure to post a comment and let us know.

Don’t forget the 61st Annual Primetime Emmy Awards air Sunday, September 20th at 8 p.m. on CBS…

And I’ll be checking in periodically throughout the night with my thoughts right here, so…

Stay Tuned…