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Thursday, August 24, 2006

My Emmy Predictions

Wow! Is it Thursday already? Where did this week go?

I had intended to have this posted by last night, but I ended up going out. And then I had to watch “Project Runway.” And if you saw that last night, then you know I was too upset to do anything else.

But I’ll have more on that later. This post is all about my predictions for the Emmys.

Since most of you have never seen my predictions before, here’s how I do it. I pick who I think will win, a Wild Card (i.e. the spoiler who could upset my pick) and then who I want to win.

My big achievement last year was correctly predicting that Felicity Huffman would win for best actress in a comedy, when everyone thought it would go to Teri Hatcher.

So after scouring over all of the critic’s opinions and episode submissions here are my predictions for the major categories Sunday night…

Actor, Comedy Series
Larry David, “Curb Your Enthusiasm”
Kevin James, “The King of Queens”
Tony Shalhoub, “Monk”
Steve Carell, “The Office”
Charlie Sheen, “Two and a Half Men”

My Pick: Steve Carell. In my opinion, this is one of the few sure things this year.
Wild Card: Charlie Sheen. He’s gaining momentum in a more traditional sitcom.
Want to Win: Sheen. I’m a big fan. Plus, the last time he won an award, Kiefer won too (Golden Globes)!

Actress, Comedy Series:
Lisa Kudrow, “The Comeback”
Jane Kaczmarek, “Malcolm in the Middle”
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, “The New Adventures of Old Christine”
Stockard Channing, “Out of Practice”
Debra Messing, “Will & Grace”

My Pick: In probably the weirdest category this year, I’m going with Julia Louis-Dreyfus, who will be honored for finally breaking the “Seinfeld” curse.
Wild Card: In this one, they’re pretty much all wild cards but I’m going with Lisa Kudrow who is a past winner that is getting A LOT of buzz for this one.
Want to Win: Jane Kaczmarek. This is her last chance so she deserves it. Plus, she really wants to win because she got the writers to write her an Emmy bait episode.

Supporting Actor, Comedy Series:
Will Arnett, “Arrested Development”
Jeremy Piven, “Entourage”
Bryan Cranston, “Malcolm in the Middle”
Jon Cryer, “Two and a Half Men”
Sean Hayes, “Will & Grace”

My Pick: Jeremy Piven. He was upset last year, but he’ll take it this year.
Wild Card: Sean Hayes. Nostalgia always weighs heavy at the Emmys.
Want to Win: Will Arnett. He was the funniest thing about the funniest show on TV.

Supporting Actress, Comedy
Cheryl Hines, “Curb Your Enthusiasm”
Alfre Woodard, “Desperate Housewives”
Jaime Pressly, “My Name Is Earl”
Elizabeth Perkins, “Weeds”
Megan Mullally, “Will & Grace”

My Pick: Jaime Pressly. I’m going with her because she’s the most deserving and I’m going to have a little faith in the panels this year.
Wild Card: Megan Mullally. There’s that nostalgia thing again. Plus, she had some genuinely funny episodes.
Want to Win: Even though she played the character that brought the show to a grinding halt, the evil part of me would like to see Alfre Woodard win just for fun.

Comedy Series
“Arrested Development”
“Curb Your Enthusiasm”
“The Office”
“Two and a Half Men”

My Pick: “The Office.” It’s getting the most buzz from critics and anything with Steve Carell is really hot right now.
Wild Card: “Arrested Development.” The fact that it was even nominated shows that there are still people out there who want to honor it. But are there enough?
Want to Win: “Arrested,” of course. However, I would be okay with “Scrubs” just because it would be funny to see NBC scramble to honor a show they didn’t even bother to put on their fall schedule.

Actor, Drama Series:
Denis Leary, “Rescue Me”
Peter Krause, “Six Feet Under”
Kiefer Sutherland, “24”
Martin Sheen, “The West Wing”
Christopher Meloni, “Law & Order: SVU”

My Pick: Martin Sheen. It hurts to even type his name, because without James Gandolfini or James Spader, it should have been Kiefer’s year. But I feel nostalgia weighing very heavy here and Kiefer picked the wrong episode.
Wild Card: Denis Leary. Leary is a comedian handling meaty dramatic stuff (In his episode, his character deals with his son dying.) and Emmy loves that.
Want to Win: Do I even have to tell you? I’m still disappointed that Kiefer submitted the season premiere, but maybe he knew it wasn’t going to matter. However, if some of the same voters choose Actor and Supporting Actor (which is possible), then his chances will greatly improve. If he does win, it will be because of the respect he has earned from the acting community—not his episode.

Actress, Drama
Kyra Sedgwick, “The Closer”
Geena Davis, “Commander In Chief”
Mariska Hargitay, “Law & Order: SVU”
Frances Conroy, “Six Feet Under”
Allison Janney, “The West Wing”

My Pick: Kyra Sedgwick. She’s got the buzz and the respect.
Wild Card: Allison Janney. There’s that nostalgia thing again. And she’s won for lesser work.
Want to Win: No offense to Kyra Sedgwick—because I really like her—but I would love for Geena Davis to win and then tell off ABC in her acceptance speech.

Supporting Actor, Drama
William Shatner, “Boston Legal”
Oliver Platt, “Huff”
Michael Imperioli, “The Sopranos”
Gregory Itzin, “24”
Alan Alda, “The West Wing”

My Pick: Gregory Itzin. I hesitate to pick him because I don’t want to jinx his chances, and I’m a little afraid that he’s such a favorite; but he’s a respected character actor in the role of his career and I think Emmy will acknowledge that. I think one of his episode choices may have been the wrong one, but it’s still good enough to get him the win.
Wild Card: Alan Alda. A former winner with the nostalgia factor and actual talent? That’s pretty hard to beat. However, Alda did not submit the debate episode and I think that will cost him.
Want to Win: Itzin, even though I think it’s wrong that someone other than Kiefer will win “24”s first acting Emmy.

Supporting Actress, Drama
Candice Bergen, “Boston Legal”
Sandra Oh, “Grey’s Anatomy”
Chandra Wilson, “Grey’s Anatomy”
Blythe Danner, “Huff”
Jean Smart, “24”

My Pick: Jean Smart. Her chances are not as strong as Itzin’s, but they’re still pretty good. However, I think she may have made a mistake by not submitting one of the early “Martha’s crazy” episodes.
Wild Card: Sandra Oh. “Grey’s” is red-hot right now and Oh submitted an episode with an emotional breakdown.
Want to Win: Smart, of course.

Drama Series
“Grey’s Anatomy”
“The Sopranos”
“The West Wing”

My Pick: “The West Wing.” This really should be the year of “24,” but I think nostalgia is going to win out. Plus, any voter who sees the “Election Day, Part 2” episode of “Wing” (but not all of them will) cannot possibly vote against it.
Wild Card: “Grey’s Anatomy.” The only thing that can beat nostalgia is red-hot buzz. Plus, they rolled out the big guns for their submission tapes with the post-Super Bowl episode and the finale.
Want to Win: “24.” But since it carries the curse of being the most nominated series, it doesn’t stand a chance.

So who do you think is going to win? Let me know your thoughts.

Don’t forget that I am scheduled to start blogging Sunday night at 7:45, so be sure to join me!